Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1975 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1975 CLT 08:35 → TPA 10:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2022 CLT 20:16 → TPA 21:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1975 American	CLT 08:35	TPA 10:26	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 436 American Flight history →	CLT 10:27	TPA 12:18	11%	3%	1.8%	83%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	CLT 12:25	TPA 14:12	14%	3%	1.9%	80%
AA 1982 American	CLT 13:47	TPA 15:37	16%	4%	2.1%	no record
AA 545 American	CLT 15:46	TPA 17:47	22%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 1773 American Flight history →	CLT 21:43	TPA 23:35	22%	6%	2.1%	64%
AA 3051 American	CLT 17:48	TPA 19:42	26%	8%	5.3%	no record
AA 2022 American Flight history →	CLT 20:16	TPA 21:59	29%	9%	2.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON