Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2657 American	CLT 12:44	TUL 14:13	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2662 American Flight history →	CLT 18:25	TUL 19:58	12%	3%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa	2h 56m Houston	IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa	7h 20m	99%	98%
Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754	4h 48m	99%	92%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 13m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	8h 49m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	4h 55m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	6h 45m	100%	88%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 23:11 → TUL 01:07 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	97%	87%
American Details →	CLT 07:33 → DFW 09:23AA 1005	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:53 → TUL 12:09AA 2352	5h 36m	100%	85%
American Details →	CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942	2h 14m New York	LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic	7h 51m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON