Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5232 CLT 21:47 → TYS 22:54 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5368 CLT 20:12 → TYS 21:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5232 PSA	CLT 21:47	TYS 22:54	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5584 PSA	CLT 16:22	TYS 17:31	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5368 PSA	CLT 20:12	TYS 21:00	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5953 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:11	TYS 12:34	10%	7%	0.0%	90%
AA 5950 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:15	TYS 10:38	12%	6%	0.0%	88%
AA 5831 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:24	TYS 15:42	18%	11%	0.0%	82%
AA 5909 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:35	TYS 21:58	35%	14%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON