Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5165 at 11:29 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 5165 CLT 11:29 → VPS 12:11 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2197 CLT 17:44 → VPS 18:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5165 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:29	VPS 12:11	15%	3%	2.1%	84%
AA 5201 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:15	VPS 15:57	19%	4%	1.8%	71%
OH 5505 PSA	CLT 16:49	VPS 17:31	22%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 2197 American Flight history →	CLT 17:44	VPS 18:20	30%	5%	1.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON