Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2469 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2469 CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2539 CMH 19:37 → ATL 21:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2469 Delta Flight history →	CMH 06:00	ATL 07:35	3%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	CMH 10:00	ATL 11:35	4%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	CMH 12:48	ATL 14:26	5%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2909 Delta Flight history →	CMH 07:05	ATL 08:42	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	CMH 14:43	ATL 16:22	6%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 3165 Delta Flight history →	CMH 08:11	ATL 09:45	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	CMH 16:57	ATL 18:29	7%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	CMH 19:03	ATL 20:39	8%	3%	0.6%	75%
F9 2539 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 19:37	ATL 21:29	22%	10%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON