Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4563 Southwest	CMH 13:32	AUS 15:13	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4028 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 13:58	AUS 16:09	9%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688	7h 29m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic	2h 10m New York	JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323	8h 03m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	7h 25m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	7h 49m	99%	91%
United Details →	CMH 09:00 → ORD 09:36UA 466	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	6h 41m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 31m Detroit	DTW 12:53 → AUS 14:55DL 1012	7h 40m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218	5h 19m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON