Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4627 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10%.

Safest bet that day AA 4627 CMH 08:55 → DCA 10:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2489 CMH 13:41 → DCA 15:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4627 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:55	DCA 10:37	5%	2%	0.6%	80%
AA 3861 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:14	DCA 07:49	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
YX 131 Republic	CMH 20:45	DCA 22:28	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 19:08	DCA 20:52	10%	5%	0.6%	73%
YX 4777 Republic	CMH 15:52	DCA 17:28	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:46	DCA 14:24	12%	3%	0.6%	70%
WN 2489 Southwest	CMH 13:41	DCA 15:03	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON