Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2380 CMH 07:13 → DFW 09:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1492 CMH 16:37 → DFW 18:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2380 American Flight history →	CMH 07:13	DFW 09:01	7%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 2987 American	CMH 08:00	DFW 09:52	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1279 American Flight history →	CMH 11:46	DFW 13:25	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 2305 Delta	CMH 22:15	DFW 23:49	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 303 Delta	CMH 15:46	DFW 17:18	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1492 American Flight history →	CMH 16:37	DFW 18:10	15%	4%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON