Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5812 CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 3867 CMH 18:31 → DTW 19:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5812 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:15	DTW 09:22	3%	2%	0.6%	95%
YX 5859 Republic	CMH 11:59	DTW 13:19	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5701 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:40	DTW 07:50	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
YX 5661 Republic	CMH 14:04	DTW 15:30	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3885 SkyWest	CMH 10:21	DTW 11:32	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3867 SkyWest	CMH 18:31	DTW 19:38	7%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON