Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3430 CMH 06:04 → IAD 07:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 1538 CMH 15:06 → IAD 16:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3430 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:04	IAD 07:48	2%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 1538 United	CMH 15:06	IAD 16:31	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 4593 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 19:40	IAD 21:09	11%	7%	9.7%	89%
UA 4056 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 10:30	IAD 11:54	26%	7%	0.0%	74%
UA 4428 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 06:00	IAD 07:23	29%	12%	2.0%	71%
UA 4387 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 14:53	IAD 16:22	31%	17%	5.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON