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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4674 Southwest CMH 07:12 LAS 08:28 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 1495 Southwest CMH 17:16 LAS 18:34 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Chicago ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19UA 574 6h 49m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 30m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 9h 58m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → CMH 12:30 → JFK 14:35DL 5649 · flown by Republic 2h 25m New York JFK 17:00 → LAS 19:50DL 806 10h 20m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 2h 53m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 8h 13m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:04 → IAD 07:48UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Dulles IAD 08:53 → LAS 10:49UA 1323 7h 45m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → CMH 09:10 → JFK 11:11AA 4808 · flown by Republic 2h 26m New York JFK 13:37 → LAS 16:22AA 2536 10h 12m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 6h 32m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 9h 02m 99% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON