Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5700 CMH 06:00 → LGA 07:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 5675 CMH 17:30 → LGA 19:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5700 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:00	LGA 07:49	3%	1%	0.7%	94%
AA 4604 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:07	LGA 11:07	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
YX 5862 Republic	CMH 10:51	LGA 12:53	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4625 Republic	CMH 07:04	LGA 09:04	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5691 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:00	LGA 09:49	5%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 14:11	LGA 16:16	7%	2%	0.7%	78%
AA 4684 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 15:26	LGA 17:19	9%	3%	0.7%	43%
AA 4791 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:27	LGA 19:24	9%	3%	0.7%	67%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:30	LGA 19:28	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 4649 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 14:25	LGA 16:14	38%	21%	12.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON