Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3524 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 3524 CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1182 CMH 17:48 → ORD 18:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3524 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:09	2%	2%	0.6%	94%
YX 4563 Republic	CMH 05:31	ORD 06:00	2%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3716 Republic	CMH 12:33	ORD 13:05	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 622 United Flight history →	CMH 11:03	ORD 11:39	6%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 466 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	ORD 09:36	7%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 10:24	ORD 10:49	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 3465 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 16:14	ORD 16:46	8%	3%	0.6%	75%
MQ 3815 Envoy	CMH 15:09	ORD 15:33	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3572 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 08:29	ORD 09:10	9%	3%	0.7%	76%
UA 2653 United	CMH 08:30	ORD 08:48	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 6347 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 12:58	ORD 13:21	11%	5%	0.8%	47%
UA 1293 United	CMH 13:58	ORD 14:19	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3917 Envoy	CMH 20:36	ORD 20:57	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 4742 SkyWest	CMH 19:42	ORD 20:04	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1182 United Flight history →	CMH 17:48	ORD 18:14	22%	6%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON