Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2867 CMH 05:57 → PHL 07:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2592 CMH 18:35 → PHL 20:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2867 American Flight history →	CMH 05:57	PHL 07:42	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 4711 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:05	PHL 09:45	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 2253 American	CMH 12:45	PHL 14:35	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5640 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 10:40	PHL 12:15	7%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2592 American	CMH 18:35	PHL 20:21	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON