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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 2h 37m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 51m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 17m Detroit DTW 12:39 → SAN 14:18DL 761 9h 03m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SAN 11:14DL 924 8h 14m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 03m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → CMH 04:58 → CLT 06:28AA 5199 · flown by PSA 3h 40m Charlotte CLT 10:08 → SAN 12:01AA 1913 10h 03m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 37m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 14:00 → MSP 15:07DL 2550 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:35DL 2145 9h 35m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:55 → PHL 07:39AA 2867 1h 00m Philadelphia PHL 08:39 → SAN 11:20AA 1621 8h 25m 96% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → CMH 18:07 → SEA 20:15AS 450 50m Seattle SEA 21:05 → SAN 23:30AS 247 8h 23m 71% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON