Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 860 CMH 12:46 → SFO 14:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1597 CMH 07:00 → SFO 09:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 860 Delta	CMH 12:46	SFO 14:46	6%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 977 Delta	CMH 10:01	SFO 11:56	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 1655 Delta	CMH 20:18	SFO 22:13	10%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1597 United Flight history →	CMH 07:00	SFO 09:06	10%	3%	0.6%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	50m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 20m	95%	88%
United Details →	CMH 09:00 → DEN 10:14UA 728	1h 07m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 04m	95%	84%
United Details →	CMH 11:03 → ORD 11:39UA 622	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 12:43 → SFO 15:12UA 3860	7h 09m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON