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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 4656 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day OO 4656 COS 05:48 → DEN 06:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1194 COS 16:12 → DEN 16:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
OO 4656 SkyWest COS 05:48 DEN 06:56 4% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 1192 Southwest COS 07:21 DEN 08:21 6% 1% 0.6% no record
UA 5400 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → COS 10:23 DEN 11:38 7% 5% 0.6% 88%
OO 4739 SkyWest COS 08:06 DEN 09:16 8% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 4696 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → COS 07:05 DEN 08:10 9% 4% 0.6% 90%
UA 4675 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → COS 11:31 DEN 12:45 10% 6% 0.6% 82%
UA 5634 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → COS 09:20 DEN 10:33 10% 6% 0.6% 85%
WN 1265 Southwest COS 14:08 DEN 14:51 11% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 4691 SkyWest COS 08:43 DEN 09:32 11% 5% 0.6% no record
OO 4690 SkyWest COS 14:55 DEN 15:46 12% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 4719 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → COS 17:13 DEN 18:25 13% 5% 0.6% 68%
UA 1610 United COS 13:28 DEN 14:39 13% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 1194 Southwest COS 16:12 DEN 16:57 15% 3% 0.6% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON