Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: OO 6221 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day OO 6221 COS 05:43 → DFW 08:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1170 COS 15:55 → DFW 18:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6221 SkyWest	COS 05:43	DFW 08:49	6%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 782 American Flight history →	COS 08:01	DFW 10:56	10%	5%	0.8%	92%
OO 6197 SkyWest	COS 13:15	DFW 16:12	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1552 American Flight history →	COS 10:12	DFW 13:05	16%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 1170 American Flight history →	COS 15:55	DFW 18:50	19%	8%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON