Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 5325 at 07:58, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5325 COS 07:58 → IAH 11:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5325 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 07:58	IAH 11:33	7%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 4029 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	COS 07:30	IAH 11:03	11%	1%	0.0%	89%
UA 4030 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	COS 12:06	IAH 15:35	19%	13%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON