Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3655 COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest MQ 3398 COU 18:24 → ORD 19:54 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3655 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 06:20	ORD 08:01	6%	3%	0.8%	87%
MQ 3394 Envoy	COU 10:29	ORD 11:58	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4779 SkyWest	COU 11:09	ORD 12:42	12%	6%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3398 Envoy	COU 18:24	ORD 19:54	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 4605 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	COU 10:49	ORD 12:30	11%	8%	2.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON