tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2441 at 13:08, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2441 Southwest CVG 13:08 AUS 14:40 10% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record CVG 08:10 AUS 09:50 10% 7% 0.9% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976 4h 53m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 41m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 16m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → CVG 05:08 → CLT 06:35AA 429 2h 26m Charlotte CLT 09:01 → AUS 11:07AA 818 6h 59m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 39m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 1h 27m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 5h 59m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 6h 45m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy 1h 39m Chicago ORD 08:11 → AUS 10:58AA 1121 5h 58m 97% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON