Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 429 CVG 05:08 → CLT 06:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 430 CVG 11:08 → CLT 12:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 429 American Flight history →	CVG 05:08	CLT 06:35	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2349 American	CVG 05:50	CLT 07:28	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5111 PSA	CVG 18:05	CLT 19:37	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1533 American	CVG 13:03	CLT 14:29	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 430 American Flight history →	CVG 11:08	CLT 12:37	12%	3%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON