Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1666 CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3725 CVG 17:09 → DEN 18:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1666 United Flight history →	CVG 08:00	DEN 09:02	5%	2%	0.5%	87%
WN 1080 Southwest	CVG 14:17	DEN 15:04	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 479 United Flight history →	CVG 15:29	DEN 16:30	9%	3%	0.5%	86%
F9 3725 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 17:09	DEN 18:19	12%	3%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON