Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3157 CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1992 CVG 17:03 → DFW 18:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3157 American Flight history →	CVG 06:00	DFW 07:32	7%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 1056 American	CVG 06:01	DFW 07:37	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2610 American Flight history →	CVG 11:46	DFW 13:08	9%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 807 American Flight history →	CVG 07:54	DFW 09:17	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 1992 American	CVG 17:03	DFW 18:33	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON