tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4018 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record CVG 14:55 IAD 16:34 13% 4% 1.9% 87%
UA 4422 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record CVG 19:45 IAD 21:25 14% 8% 3.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 03m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 52m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 15m Chicago ORD 10:49 → IAD 13:46UA 1486 6h 46m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:03 → DTW 12:16DL 5209 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 38m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 04m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 1h 50m Newark EWR 09:57 → IAD 11:14UA 1618 5h 14m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 41m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 04m 94% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON