Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2442 CVG 06:26 → IAH 08:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 534 CVG 17:07 → IAH 18:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2442 United Flight history →	CVG 06:26	IAH 08:03	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
AS 2603 Alaska	CVG 15:31	IAH 16:57	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 534 United	CVG 17:07	IAH 18:36	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 4006 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 06:35	IAH 08:18	8%	8%	0.0%	92%
UA 6367 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 11:52	IAH 13:29	14%	6%	1.3%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON