tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2915 Delta Flight history → CVG 07:16 LAS 08:16 5% 2% 0.6% 83%
F9 3521 Frontier Flight history → CVG 09:57 LAS 11:16 9% 3% 0.8% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 22m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 26m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 9h 03m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02UA 1666 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 19m Chicago ORD 10:53 → LAS 12:46UA 1803 8h 46m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:35 → JFK 13:40DL 5096 · flown by Endeavor 3h 20m New York JFK 17:00 → LAS 19:50DL 806 11h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:45 → JFK 08:50DL 5044 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 10h 16m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:21 → IAH 07:46UA 2442 3h 09m Houston IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799 8h 53m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON