Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 4948 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 4948 CVG 05:56 → LGA 07:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest 9E 4961 CVG 17:09 → LGA 19:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4948 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CVG 05:56	LGA 07:59	9%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 5075 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CVG 12:11	LGA 14:15	13%	4%	0.7%	86%
9E 5016 Endeavor	CVG 10:21	LGA 12:25	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5149 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CVG 07:52	LGA 09:55	15%	3%	0.7%	82%
9E 5135 Endeavor	CVG 10:23	LGA 12:24	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4682 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CVG 15:12	LGA 17:14	19%	5%	0.7%	73%
9E 4961 Endeavor	CVG 17:09	LGA 19:11	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON