Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 511 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 511 CVG 08:26 → MCO 10:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2824 CVG 15:58 → MCO 18:23 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 511 Delta Flight history →	CVG 08:26	MCO 10:30	5%	2%	1.2%	87%
F9 3624 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 07:15	MCO 09:32	8%	5%	2.1%	91%
F9 1750 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 21:30	MCO 23:51	14%	7%	2.7%	77%
DL 2824 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:58	MCO 18:23	21%	10%	1.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON