Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AA 3638 at 06:30, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3638 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:30	MIA 09:08	6%	2%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 23m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 09:03 → MIA 13:40DL 793	7h 31m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 09m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 53m	99%	89%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → MIA 12:45AA 1250	6h 45m	98%	88%
American Details →	CVG 07:59 → CLT 09:27AA 429	1h 35m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 12m	95%	87%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620	7h 57m	100%	87%
American Details →	CVG 06:02 → DCA 07:50AA 5445 · flown by PSA	2h 02m Washington	DCA 09:52 → MIA 13:10AA 401	7h 08m	95%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON