Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1379 at 05:28 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1379 CVG 05:28 → ORD 06:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5595 CVG 18:01 → ORD 18:32 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1379 United	CVG 05:28	ORD 06:00	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4460 Republic	CVG 14:20	ORD 14:59	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4094 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:00	ORD 06:32	6%	2%	0.7%	82%
MQ 3935 Envoy	CVG 10:33	ORD 10:59	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3690 Republic	CVG 09:02	ORD 09:34	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 21:32	ORD 22:08	7%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 1738 United	CVG 10:53	ORD 11:23	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2752 United Flight history →	CVG 07:00	ORD 07:34	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2755 American	CVG 07:48	ORD 08:22	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3426 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 11:58	ORD 12:21	11%	3%	0.7%	67%
OO 5540 SkyWest	CVG 11:41	ORD 12:06	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4735 SkyWest	CVG 13:53	ORD 14:17	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 4749 SkyWest	CVG 16:03	ORD 16:34	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 5595 SkyWest	CVG 18:01	ORD 18:32	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 4177 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 19:54	ORD 20:34	22%	0%	12.9%	78%
UA 4171 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:52	23%	14%	5.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON