Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5514 CVG 06:03 → PHL 08:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 5515 CVG 17:56 → PHL 19:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5514 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 06:03	PHL 08:00	7%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 5578 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 08:01	PHL 09:58	9%	4%	0.7%	86%
OH 5298 PSA	CVG 11:00	PHL 12:49	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5546 PSA	CVG 15:16	PHL 17:13	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5515 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 17:56	PHL 19:47	10%	4%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON