tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1925 American CVG 07:53 PHX 09:26 9% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 3091 American CVG 15:00 PHX 16:02 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 34m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:57 → DTW 09:16DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor 3h 31m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 8h 53m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 8h 09m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:56 → DTW 07:15DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 20m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 6h 48m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → CVG 05:08 → CLT 06:35AA 429 3h 06m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 8h 56m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 8h 00m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 14:10 → DTW 15:29DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor 2h 57m Detroit DTW 18:26 → PHX 19:47DL 1135 8h 37m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:04 → PHX 11:59DL 687 7h 50m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON