Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 5400 at 13:58, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5400 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CVG 13:58	RDU 15:30	6%	2%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 09:57 → RDU 13:08AA 4354 · flown by Republic	7h 08m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 33m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:57 → DTW 07:17DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164	6h 00m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	6h 15m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026	6h 15m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 08:43 → RDU 10:10DL 1699	4h 36m	99%	92%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616	7h 01m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932	7h 29m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON