Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 324 CVG 23:26 → SEA 01:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 451 CVG 20:05 → SEA 21:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 324 Delta	CVG 23:26	SEA 01:18	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 966 Delta Flight history →	CVG 06:40	SEA 08:34	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 384 Delta	CVG 11:09	SEA 13:01	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2889 Delta	CVG 18:51	SEA 20:42	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 451 Alaska	CVG 20:05	SEA 21:30	16%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON