Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 859 CVG 08:21 → SLC 10:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2149 CVG 19:59 → SLC 21:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 859 Delta	CVG 08:21	SLC 10:13	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2876 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:12	SLC 08:55	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 464 Delta	CVG 14:06	SLC 15:56	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 445 Delta	CVG 22:01	SLC 23:54	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2149 Delta Flight history →	CVG 19:59	SLC 21:44	7%	2%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON