Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:23 am at Hebron)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:34, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048	6h 28m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	4h 55m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CVG 18:47 → ATL 20:28DL 1516	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	5h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 18:18 → ATL 20:04DL 1008	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 23:06 → VPS 23:23DL 2745	6h 05m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 13:29 → ATL 15:04DL 3149	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 13m	99%	87%
American Details →	CVG 06:22 → CLT 07:57AA 429	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 11:29 → VPS 12:11AA 5165 · flown by PSA	6h 49m	95%	81%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32AA 3157	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	6h 28m	97%	81%
American Details →	CVG 11:10 → CLT 12:39AA 430	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 15:15 → VPS 15:57AA 5201 · flown by PSA	5h 47m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON