Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1668 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1668 DAL 07:50 → ABQ 08:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3776 DAL 16:23 → ABQ 17:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1668 Southwest	DAL 07:50	ABQ 08:48	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2119 Southwest	DAL 11:00	ABQ 11:58	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1277 Southwest	DAL 11:13	ABQ 12:03	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3680 Southwest	DAL 20:18	ABQ 21:27	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1305 Southwest	DAL 12:34	ABQ 13:31	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2445 Southwest	DAL 15:40	ABQ 16:35	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1158 Southwest	DAL 12:58	ABQ 13:47	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3776 Southwest	DAL 16:23	ABQ 17:12	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON