Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 516 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 516 DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1278 DAL 12:20 → ATL 15:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 516 Delta Flight history →	DAL 06:05	ATL 09:17	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 9964 Delta	DAL 00:36	ATL 03:46	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4382 Southwest	DAL 07:45	ATL 10:56	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	DAL 11:58	ATL 15:12	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	DAL 15:59	ATL 19:14	10%	3%	0.6%	72%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	DAL 18:39	ATL 22:00	10%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 1315 Southwest	DAL 15:50	ATL 18:52	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4990 Southwest	DAL 18:15	ATL 21:17	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1278 Southwest	DAL 12:20	ATL 15:23	15%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON