Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3256 Southwest	DAL 09:33	BHM 11:20	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4029 Southwest	DAL 20:43	BHM 22:27	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 05m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	7h 03m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:00 → HOU 12:15WN 17	2h 43m Houston	HOU 14:58 → BHM 16:44WN 580	5h 44m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	4h 24m	95%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON