Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1951 DAL 08:40 → BNA 10:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 38 DAL 17:13 → BNA 19:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1951 Southwest	DAL 08:40	BNA 10:36	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1246 Southwest	DAL 07:25	BNA 09:21	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 301 Southwest	DAL 11:15	BNA 13:05	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 872 Southwest	DAL 12:55	BNA 14:47	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1250 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:15	BNA 21:08	13%	4%	0.5%	19%
WN 1249 Southwest	DAL 14:53	BNA 16:42	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 38 Southwest	DAL 17:13	BNA 19:02	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON