Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4256 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4256 DAL 06:45 → BWI 10:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1260 DAL 16:42 → BWI 20:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4256 Southwest	DAL 06:45	BWI 10:48	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4677 Southwest	DAL 08:25	BWI 12:28	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4031 Southwest	DAL 11:31	BWI 15:31	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 418 Southwest	DAL 13:02	BWI 17:01	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4037 Southwest	DAL 14:56	BWI 18:58	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1260 Southwest	DAL 16:42	BWI 20:46	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON