Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4617 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4617 DAL 08:07 → DEN 09:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2159 DAL 18:24 → DEN 19:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4617 Southwest	DAL 08:07	DEN 09:08	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1269 Southwest	DAL 07:10	DEN 08:16	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 199 Southwest	DAL 11:17	DEN 12:14	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1148 Southwest	DAL 14:13	DEN 15:10	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1271 Southwest	DAL 15:51	DEN 16:56	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1272 Southwest	DAL 17:04	DEN 18:05	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2159 Southwest	DAL 18:24	DEN 19:38	21%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON