Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1549 Southwest	DAL 09:05	ECP 11:05	16%	2%	2.1%	no record
WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:57	ECP 18:52	23%	5%	1.3%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → ECP 19:10DL 3053	7h 12m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 43m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	4h 58m	93%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:00 → HOU 15:15WN 31	3h 22m Houston	HOU 18:37 → ECP 20:25WN 4852	6h 25m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON