Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1628 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 41 DAL 16:30 → HOU 17:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	3%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:30	HOU 09:45	5%	1%	0.7%	84%
WN 1 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:00	HOU 08:10	6%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 11 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:30	HOU 10:45	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 17 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:00	HOU 12:15	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
WN 25 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:30	HOU 13:45	12%	2%	0.7%	79%
WN 37 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:30	HOU 16:50	12%	3%	0.7%	66%
WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:30	HOU 18:50	12%	3%	0.6%	60%
WN 31 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:00	HOU 15:15	14%	3%	0.7%	80%
WN 57 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:23	HOU 21:34	15%	3%	0.7%	72%
WN 51 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:01	HOU 20:12	15%	4%	0.6%	66%
WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:30	HOU 17:45	19%	3%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON