Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4917 at 17:25, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4917 Southwest	DAL 17:25	IND 20:31	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 31m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:35 → IND 19:10DL 3120	6h 12m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	7h 42m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:00 → HOU 15:15WN 31	3h 01m Houston	HOU 18:16 → IND 21:41WN 1724	6h 41m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:57 → MDW 19:15WN 1327	1h 25m Chicago	MDW 20:40 → IND 22:40WN 2738	4h 43m	92%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON