Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4845 at 14:32, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4845 Southwest	DAL 14:32	JAX 17:50	23%	5%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 40m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	7h 10m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:07 → JAX 19:24DL 2315	6h 26m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON