Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:58, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 31m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	7h 47m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 15m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON