Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1286 DAL 06:15 → LAS 07:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3760 DAL 14:00 → LAS 14:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1286 Southwest	DAL 06:15	LAS 07:07	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 833 Southwest	DAL 08:09	LAS 08:58	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 667 Southwest	DAL 11:24	LAS 12:17	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 224 Southwest	DAL 19:38	LAS 20:37	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3760 Southwest	DAL 14:00	LAS 14:47	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON