Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1300 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1300 DAL 06:25 → LGA 10:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1304 DAL 16:50 → LGA 21:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1300 Southwest	DAL 06:25	LGA 10:46	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1301 Southwest	DAL 09:40	LGA 14:10	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1281 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:49	LGA 16:21	15%	3%	0.6%	62%
WN 1305 Southwest	DAL 18:11	LGA 22:38	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1304 Southwest	DAL 16:50	LGA 21:17	22%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON